Numerical simulation of gas pipeline networks : theory, by Radii Ivanovich Il'kaev; Vadim Evgenevich Seleznev; Vladimir

By Radii Ivanovich Il'kaev; Vadim Evgenevich Seleznev; Vladimir Vasilevich Aleshin; Gennady Semenovich Klishin; et al

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235) The preceding boom and crash of 1733-4 must have been perceived as odious and dramatic as that of 1720. There is evidence of business failures and financial crises simultaneously in England, Scotland and Amsterdam. Profit rates fell for two years (the peak was in 1733) with the financial crisis running from October to December 1733. The Hoffmann index of industrial production (without building) turned sharply down in Background to the British Industrial Revolution 39 1734, to underscore the real dimension of this event.

This is not surprising. Now correlation is not causation, and in vtew of the exceedingly sparse nominal wage data, little faith can be put in contemporaneous correlations like those just shown. , that population pressure forces up prices and that the lag of wages behind prices produces a fall in real wages (as long as the gap is not eliminated). This being the case, a formal causality test might reasonably show inflation causing real wages. To search for this possibility, the Granger-causality test was applied to each of these data sets, for lags up to five years, but there was absolutely no sign of any causal relationship (or even a reverse-causal relationship) in these data.

11 captures the numbers for war and peace-time interest and inflation rates. The inflation series here is that of Phelps Brown and Hopkins (1956) and is a cost of living index; the protagonists in the debate tend to use a wholesale price index. In any case, it is an annual rate, unfortunately, so the calculation in the table is approximate. It is hard to generalize, but one surely notices that the three war periods show nominal interest rates in excess of the following peacetime period (it would be the preceding period for the last set, of course).

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