Mixed Electoral Systems: Contamination and Its Consequences by F. Ferrara, E. Herron, M. Nishikawa

By F. Ferrara, E. Herron, M. Nishikawa

Utilizing election returns, public opinion surveys, and legislative roll-call information from many combined platforms in each international sector, the authors express that illness systematically impacts occasion technique, vote casting behaviour, legislative team spirit and total constitution of partisan pageant.

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That is, party leaders nominate candidates in districts where they know that their party enjoys a high level of popularity, rendering candidate placement at least partially endogenous to the model. While this argument assumes that political parties clearly comprehend the distribution of support in electoral districts, an assumption that is unlikely to hold in some of the cases evaluated here, we account for popularity in our statistical tests. 40 / mixed electoral systems ● ● ● Incumbency. 11 Demographics.

Each party receives a proportion of the district PR vote that falls between 0 and 1; moreover, the sum of the votes received by all parties in competition must sum to 1. If we estimate the impact of candidate placement on each party’s PR vote separately—treating the dependent variables as unbounded and independent—we potentially generate nonsensical predictions. The predicted vote of any given political party may fall outside the unit interval; alternatively, the sum of the predicted vote shares of each of the parties in logic of contamination / 41 competition may exceed one (Honaker, Katz, and King 2002; Katz and King 1999; Tomz, Tucker, and Wittenberg 2002).

4 In this sense, parties may elaborate their SMD nomination strategies based not only on their potential candidate’s estimated chances of winning the district, but also with an eye to how candidate selection may affect their performance in the PR component. 5 Even minor, nonviable parties, which are generally expected to coalesce or altogether withdraw from competition in plurality elections, should run in SMD to maximize their vote share in PR. This incentive structure should lead the majoritarian component of the election to differ from pure forms of SMD in two relevant ways.

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